French election: What would a Le Pen victory mean for Ukraine?

Berliner Zeitung French election: What would a Le Pen victory mean for Ukraine? Nicolas Butylin • 3 hours • 4 minutes reading time Volodymyr Selenskyj, the Ukrainian president, is watching the outcome of the runoff elections in France with particular tension. What will relations between Kiev and Paris look like if Marine Le Pen's right-wing RN party wins? A political earthquake is brewing in France this weekend - with significant consequences that could reach as far as eastern Europe. The right-wing Rassemblement National (RN), Marine Le Pen's party, is in a neck-and-neck race with the left-wing alliance, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP). The bloc of French President and staunch Ukraine supporter Emmanuel Macron has already lost its majority in parliament. The only open question now seems to be whether the RN will succeed in gaining an absolute majority. But what would such a Le Pen victory mean for Kiev? "Ukraine must be able to defend itself," said RN top candidate Jordan Bardella recently, signaling the increasingly pro-Western ambitions of his right-wing party. In fact, during the election campaign, the Le Pen formation has repeatedly tried to prove its social acceptability in dealing with Ukraine and to free itself from the suspicion that the RN is a Russian submarine in France. However, the question of how a France under Prime Minister Bardella would continue to support political Kiev in its war against Russia is deliberately left open. Instead, Le Pen and her political protégé criticize the ineffectiveness of sanctions against Moscow and the instrumentalization of the Russian invasion by President Macron for his political purposes. During a press conference on the sidelines of an arms fair near Paris, Bardella outlined his "red lines" in relations with Ukraine. For him, it is out of the question to provide long-range missiles and weapons with which the Ukrainian army would be able to "attack Russian territory." Bardella wants to "avoid any risk of escalation." Unsurprisingly, he also criticizes Macron's nebulous idea from February of this year to send French soldiers to Ukraine. But the RN is also committed to "normalizing" its own foreign policy discourse. Bardella has "no intention of questioning France's international commitments on defense issues." At the Paris arms fair a few weeks ago, he said that France must maintain "credibility with European partners and NATO allies." Before the invasion of Ukraine in spring 2022, relations with Russia were characterized by "collective naivety" - he would not allow "Russian imperialism to absorb a country like Ukraine." As prime minister, he will continue to support Ukraine logistically and "in terms of defense." Bardella also claims that the party program is no longer as "anti-European" as it used to be. For example, France's exit from the EU has been abandoned; instead, a "Europe of nations" is the declared goal. During the election campaign, Le Pen also repeatedly distanced herself from her pro-Russian statements, when she made no secret of her admiration for Vladimir Putin or, even after the war began, advocated an "alliance with Russia on certain substantive issues". Political observers in France repeatedly compare the change in the RN's foreign policy positions with the so-called melonization of right-wing parties in Europe: the West's support policy is not being shaken, the fundamental criticism of the EU is taking on a more moderate tone, instead they want to prove themselves in government responsibility and sit at the table with the global players at G7, G20 or NATO summits. They also want to "avoid an escalation with Russia," says Bardella. But in Ukraine, people are very skeptical about a possible prime minister from the political right. If Le Pen wins, bilateral relations between France and Ukraine will be put to the test, we hear from political Kiev - similar to the current relationship with Hungary or Slovakia. Macron enjoys very high popularity in the Eastern European country - in contrast to his homeland. His Ukraine policy is vehemently criticized by Le Pen, Bardella and Co. - in Kyiv, Lviv and Odessa, it is therefore assumed that an RN victory will lead to a turnaround in interstate relations. Even if the actual military support provided by France is comparatively small compared to the economic size of the country, Macron's rhetorical solidarity is received very favorably in Ukraine.