Friday, October 6, 2023

Current survey before the Bavaria election: Söder's CSU slightly improved - FDP threatens debacle

MERCURY Many are still undecided Current survey before the Bavaria election: Söder's CSU slightly improved - FDP threatens debacle According to the ZDF “Politbarometer”, the CSU is still clearly in the lead before the Bavarian election. Behind them, the Greens, AfD and Free Voters are fighting for second place. Munich - Shortly before the Bavarian election on Sunday (October 8th), Prime Minister Markus Söder's CSU made slight gains in the ZDF "Politbarometer". In the survey published on Thursday by the Elections Research Group, the Christian Socialists achieved 37 percent on the “Sunday question”, one percentage point more than in the previous week. This would roughly match the result of the 2018 state election. At that time, the CSU achieved its worst result in almost 70 years with 37.2 percent. The FDP loses another point and only gets three percent. According to the ZDF survey, she would no longer be represented in the Bavarian state parliament. Surveys for ARD and Bild-Zeitung recently showed similar values, with the CSU consistently at just 36 percent. ZDF survey before the Bavaria election: Many eligible voters are still undecided According to the ZDF “Political Barometer”, many voters are still undecided about whether and who they should vote for, even shortly before the Bavarian election. 28 percent of those surveyed do not yet know who they should vote for. Election surveys are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, weakening party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. The research group indicates a statistical margin of error of two to three percentage points. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not predictions of the election outcome. The CSU won the 2018 state election with 37.2 percent, ahead of the Greens with 17.6 percent and Free Voters with 11.6 percent. The AfD got 10.2 percent, the SPD 9.7 percent and the FDP 5.1 percent. (cs/dpa/afp) For the representative ZDF political barometer, a total of 1,209 randomly selected eligible voters in Bavaria were surveyed by telephone and online by the Mannheim Elections Research Group on October 4th and 5th. According to ZDF, the maximum statistical error tolerance is plus/minus three percentage points.