Crisis of the Union: the problem onion

Ferdinand Otto The Union is breaking negative records, trailing the SPD in many polls. Of course, the candidate bears responsibility - but there is much more behind the crisis. Every problem of the CDU points to a deeper one. Armin Laschet really doesn't have it easy in the election campaign. Every problem the CDU faces points to a deeper problem. Armin Laschet really doesn't have it easy in the election campaign. Four weeks before the federal election, there is not much left of the CDU, this party that is confident of victory and has governed and shaped the country like no other. At least in the polls. Insa recently measured 20 percent, Forsa 21 percent, Kantar 21 percent, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 22. In some cases, it is even well behind the SPD. That hasn't happened for a long time. Even the rather conservative Allensbach Institute sees only a two-point lead over the Social Democrats. These are still only the figures from the opinion polls. But the trend is clear, and it is downward. The CDU and CSU have a realistic chance of losing the election. And on a scale that would have been considered inconceivable just a few years, or even months, ago. The search for reasons is not easy. Of course, there is the candidate and party leader. Armin Laschet bears the responsibility, that's how it is in politics. But it would be too short-sighted to blame him alone for the impending disaster. Every problem points to the next, deeper one - the onion principle of a political crisis. An Attempt at Explanation The candidate selection This is perhaps the top shell of the problems: For the CDU/CSU, the Bundestag election campaign began when the CDU made its party leader its candidate for chancellor, in late April. The problem: By then, Laschet had already been through two election campaigns and more than a year of campaigning on his own behalf. First, he competed with Friedrich Merz and Norbert Röttgen for the party chairmanship - and won because the old CDU power balance still works. And because he gave a rousing speech at the party conference. Then there was the duel with Markus Söder for the chancellor candidacy. That, of course, ate away at Laschet, but also at the CDU, and diverted capacities from the real goal, the Bundestag election. For voters, nothing is less attractive than a party in a state of permanent self-occupation. Moreover, it was clear to everyone by then at the latest that the unity that the Union bears in its name is wastepaper. If anyone was still looking for an argument against Laschet, all they had to do was open any newspaper from the last 18 months. Röttgen, Merz and Söder have provided plenty. So when the SPD and the Greens started their election campaigns fresh, energetic and unspoiled, the worn-out Laschet and his disheveled Union would probably have needed a few months to regenerate. But there was none of that. Laschet limped to the start - and was actually behind from then on. The Chancellor's Dilemma If Merkel hardly campaigns at all, as she is doing at the moment, people say she doesn't trust Laschet - or even secretly has sympathy for Baerbock or Scholz. If she did interfere, Laschet would pale beside her. He just can't do it alone, they would say. An insoluble conflict. That also applies to the content. For those who like Merkel, Laschet must promise continuity. To the others, who demand a new beginning, he must make a promise of departure. This is a rather complicated and contradictory message, and the reason why the CDU/CSU is lacking punch in the election campaign. It's a similar story with the backbench team that is now supposed to frame the party leader. The governing CDU party, of all parties, refrains from showing its governing members. Laschet really can't do anything about that. The Greens have bowed out of the race for the chancellorship, at least for the moment. Too bad for the CDU. The idea of being governed by Annalena Baerbock would certainly have motivated those who are undecided but close to the CDU. Olaf Scholz is not scaring anyone at the CDU/CSU base. On the contrary, the Merkel legacy can already be taken from him. Whether the campaign against a red-red-green coalition will really help is questionable. The weak candidate Armin Laschet's personal poll ratings are poor. In a direct comparison, he is clearly behind Olaf Scholz (SPD). Many simply don't want him as chancellor. Yet he hasn't made any major mishaps, slip-ups or failures like his competitor from the Greens. It's more of a cumulative overall impression. The constant media scrutiny simply gets Laschet badly, believes Ursula Münch, director of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing. "His way of doing politics simply doesn't fit into the digital age." What comes across as likeable, jovial and approachable in direct, interpersonal contact can easily come across as embarrassing online.