Guest article by Gabor Steingart: Many things can be outsmarted - but not the chaos Trump has caused himself

FOCUS online Guest article by Gabor Steingart: Many things can be outsmarted - but not the chaos Trump has caused himself Gabor Steingart • 44 minutes • 3 minutes reading time Donald Trump: Here, global hypercomplexity meets an old-school New York dealmaker. At many universities, you can study "Complexity Science". This is the study of the dynamics of complex systems, which sometimes produce disturbing results. The famous butterfly effect, according to which the flapping of a Brazilian butterfly's wings can trigger a tornado in Texas, is part of this science, popularly known as chaos theory. The alternative: Instead of attending a lecture hall, we can also watch Donald Trump at work. Here, global hypercomplexity meets an old-school New York dealmaker. Chaos without theory: We see a president who struggles to refute the science of complexity with simple truths. And who is surprised time and time again that he triggers the opposite effects. Many things can be outsmarted, but the chaos he has caused cannot. 1. Trump's aggressive tariff policy fires back at the USA Hardly any country in the world - and certainly not the self-confident China and the sleepy EU - accepts the American tariffs meekly. No sooner had Trump imposed additional tariffs of ten percent on all Chinese imports than the People's Republic increased import tariffs on coal and liquefied natural gas from the USA by 15 percent and on oil and agricultural machinery by ten percent. Last night Trump announced 25 percent import tariffs on EU products - especially on automobile imports, it is said. Reaction guaranteed. This is how trade wars begin, which usually leave everyone poorer and no one richer. Trump's equation of foreign tariffs financing America's national budget in place of domestic taxes cannot and will not work. 2. Attack on the public sector unsettles consumers The idea of ​​cutting back the US public sector is obvious for a Republican. But the practice of celebrating this streamlining as a pleasurable massacre of tens of thousands of public servants backfired. A multi-billionaire who is conducting this austerity operation like a war of aggression is causing maximum horror. Anyone who does not respond to the government's email asking them to name their specific activity from the previous week risks being fired. The head of the savings company Musk personally writes on X: "Failure to respond will be considered as termination." So it is no wonder that beyond the public sector, consumer confidence in the country's future is falling. The consumer confidence index of the research institute Conference Board slipped. "This is the third decline in a row and the largest since August 2021," said Conference Board economist Stephanie Guichard. 3. Dominant gestures from the president do not make the Fed chief compliant, but rather stubborn You can achieve a lot with tough statements, but often the opposite of what you wanted to achieve. The Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, is also a man of great independence. The US Constitution protects him from arbitrary actions. 4. Anti-China policy limits the potential of digital companies The use of export regulations as a political weapon sounds plausible. Trump said to the Economic Club of New York: "As you know, our country's immense industrial wealth was created at a time when there were very few domestic taxes and regulations, and most of the revenue came from tariffs from other countries. We were the wealthiest country ever in those days." But back then, America was not the export machine it is today. If Nvidia is no longer allowed to supply its high-performance chips to China, the company's growth plans will be severely disrupted. 5. Protectionism weakens the stock market and makes many Americans poorer The stock market is extremely unsettled by the president's unclear direction. Investors no longer know exactly what to make of it. Even the German DAX, which represents a stagnating economy, is doing better than the Dow Jones and Nasdaq. Since Trump took office on January 20, both indices have stagnated, while the DAX has increased by almost nine percent. 6. Freedom of expression, but not for everyone Donald Trump and his vice president JD Vance have set out to defend freedom of expression. The issue resonates more than almost any other among their supporters. At the CPAC, a gathering of international conservatives, Vance said at the weekend: At the same time, however, the US media have never been subject to so many government regulations as under the Trump/Vance team.