SPD and Greens: Another crash looms - things could get tight for both parties here

SPD and Greens: Another crash looms - things could get tight for both parties here gom/hos/news.de/dpa • 11 hours • 2 minutes reading time Hamburg's First Mayor Peter Tschentscher must expect losses for his SPD in the state elections. The result of the federal election last Sunday was historically bad for the SPD. Only 16.41 percent of voters gave their vote to the party of current Chancellor Olaf Scholz (66). This means that the Social Democrats are now only the third strongest force in parliament behind the Union and the AfD. Next Sunday, March 2, the SPD could face the next setback. SPD must expect losses in Hamburg state elections The state elections in Hamburg are scheduled for this date. The SPD and its First Mayor Peter Tschentscher can expect a clear election victory in the small northern German state. However, there is also a risk of clear losses compared to the last election in 2020. Back then, the SPD received 39.2 percent of the vote. In a recent survey by the opinion research institute Insa for the "Bild" newspaper, it is only at 32 percent. Between 2015 and 2020, the Social Democrats had already lost 6.4 percentage points. This year, the SPD could have its historically second-worst result in Hamburg after 2004. Back then, the party only received 30.5 percent. Greens also face collapse, majority with SPD in danger A majority for the current government coalition is also in danger. As a partner of the SPD, the Greens must also expect major losses compared to 2020 (24.2 percent). In the current Insa survey, the party only achieved a value of 16 percent, even being overtaken by the CDU (17 percent, +5.8). This means that the red-green coalition is currently defending its majority in the Hamburg Parliament, but if there are further losses on election Sunday, it could be close. The results for the other parties in the current Insa survey are as follows: ・The Left: 13 percent (+3.9 compared to 2020) ・AfD: 11 percent (+5.7) ・BSW: 3 percent (+3) ・FDP: 3 percent (-1.9) ・Others: 5 percent (-1.1) As with the federal election, there is a barrier clause for the state lists in the Hamburg election. Only parties that manage to get over the five percent hurdle are allowed to enter the Parliament. According to the survey results, the FDP and BSW would therefore be out. However, the five percent hurdle does not apply to candidates who are directly elected to the Parliament via the constituency list. What you should note: Insa surveyed 1,000 people from Hamburg online from February 24 to 26, 2025. Election polls are generally always subject to uncertainty. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for opinion research institutes to weight the data collected. The institute specifies a statistical error tolerance of 3.1 percentage points. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not forecasts of the election outcome.