Retired Colonel Ralph Thiele in an interview - Expert on Nord Stream revelations: "A strange number of coincidences are piling up"

FOCUS online Retired Colonel Ralph Thiele in an interview - Expert on Nord Stream revelations: "A strange number of coincidences are piling up" Article by FOCUS online editor Thomas Sabin • 6 hours • 7 minutes reading time At the end of September 2022, several explosions damaged the two pipelines through which Russian gas reached Europe. Research by the Wall Street Journal suggests that Ukraine was involved in the bomb attack on the Nord Stream pipelines. "Now it's also about how Germany dealt with this extraordinary incident," says military expert Ralph Thiele. For almost two years, investigators have been trying to clarify who was behind the explosion of the Nord Stream pipelines. Research by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) now suggests that Kiev had something to do with it and that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selensky knew about the plans. In an interview with FOCUS online, military expert Ralph Thiele sees previous assumptions confirmed - and emphasizes that the revelations must be taken seriously. FOCUS online: Mr. Thiele, the "Wall Street Journal" has published a spectacular investigation and reported on Selenskyj's alleged involvement in the Nord Stream explosion. How do you assess the new information? Ralph Thiele: Basically, I just see the old line of knowledge continued and confirmed here. Content, narrative and timing are important. American media are always cautious when publishing such information in order to avoid economic damage. The "Watergate" scandal showed this. Does that mean that you think the research is correct? Thiele: Yes, I assume that the article was not placed lightly and that discussions with American intelligence services took place behind the scenes. This means that the service employees were authorized to reveal certain information. Against this background, I take the article very seriously and see the whole thing as a confirmation of Ukrainian involvement. "Unbelievable" that Zelensky did not take care of the sabotage action When you read the report: What goes through your mind? Thiele: When I read the report, I see that Zelensky and the secret service were involved. Even if it is now reported that the Ukrainian president no longer wanted the sabotage action against the critical infrastructure of the important German partner and supporter after American intervention, the fact remains that he and the secret service were involved and at least did not take any sustainable precautions to prevent the sabotage from taking place. I consider it a pretext and unbelievable that Zelensky banned the sabotage action and did not take any further care of it. After all, the continued support of his most important European partner, Germany, was at stake. Of course, one question still remains: Why are American services now putting Zelensky in trouble? Thiele: That is an important point. Because: Why should we support a country that is responsible for the largest attack on Germany's critical infrastructure in the history of the Federal Republic? Now it is also about how Germany dealt with this extraordinary incident. "Germany must ask itself why we did not send a clear signal" What exactly do you mean? Thiele: In the context of hybrid warfare, the Nord Stream explosion was the door opener. The Russians are now doing a lot in the area of ​​arson and sabotage of logistical chains. We are moving towards significant disruptions to our critical infrastructure. Germany must ask itself why we did not send a clear political signal in this first major incident. Why we did not make it clear that we would not allow such actions and sanction them accordingly. So Germany did not respond appropriately to the Nord Stream sabotage? Thiele: Questions must now be answered such as: What has the Federal Republic of Germany done in the last two and a half years to put a stop to this foreseeable wave of attacks on critical infrastructure? Has it improved its situational awareness capabilities in the context of hybrid threats? Have services such as the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, the police and civil protection been strengthened for the additional tasks? Have measures been taken to better deal with such threats? Many uncomfortable questions are now being raised. At any rate, we are not in a good position at the moment. Back to the largest attack on Germany's critical infrastructure in the history of the Federal Republic: The WSJ article describes in detail why the American secret service had nothing to do with it. Do you believe this part too? Thiele: I think this is a smokescreen from the secret services. Of course the American secret service was involved. After all, they knew about the planned operation. There was an intervention with the Ukrainian government. There were inevitably preliminary research activities, probably also in conjunction with friendly secret services, which undoubtedly continued to monitor events. In this context, it is striking that the Polish security authorities have been dragging their feet for weeks on the execution of the arrest warrant against a suspected Ukrainian diver residing in Poland. The report in the WSJ came out immediately after the whole process became public. There are a strange number of coincidences here. What I mean by that is: we have only revealed the tip of the iceberg. There is much more to come. Drinking water manipulation does not fit into the pattern of Russian warfare You spoke about timing. In Germany, too, there have recently been suspicions of sabotage. On Wednesday, the German army cordoned off two of its locations in North Rhine-Westphalia and searched them. Apparently, the investigation was about possible manipulation of drinking water. Specialist politicians in the Bundestag suspected Russia of being behind the sabotage attempts. What do you think? Thiele: We always suspect a Russian as the perpetrator because, as Ms Baerbock once said, we are mentally at war with Russia. Intuitively, however, poisoning drinking water does not fit into the pattern of previous Russian, hybrid warfare, as it has developed against Europe and Germany over the last year. What does this pattern look like? Thiele: There is espionage, cyber attacks, homicides, arson attacks, and disruption of transport routes. Full-time actors such as spies and special forces are available to carry out these actions, but also a large number of part-time and voluntary actors - a kind of pyramid: At the top sits the Russian secret service with operations authorized by Putin. Spies and saboteurs work for them and carry out various actions. But there are also proxies such as criminal organizations that operate in Germany or individual activists who are recruited via the Internet. If it is indeed sabotage, I would suspect non-state Russian actors, such as criminals or followers who motivate themselves. Insiders are also conceivable, since in all organizations - including barracks - there are always employees who could be motivated to commit such acts for various reasons. "Do we need a new concept to protect our infrastructures" So it could also be that the barracks issue has nothing to do with sabotage? Thiele: Other causes are also possible, such as the poor condition of the infrastructure in many barracks. Old pipes and dilapidated buildings are a known problem. Given the large number of civilian employees and the often low level of security, it is also conceivable that these are insider perpetrators. But what is much more important here is that we generally need a new concept to protect our military and critical infrastructures. That means more technology, sensors and specialized teams. Vigilance alone is not enough; we need technological equipment and well-trained access teams that can act quickly and effectively to prevent damage. So does that mean that these cases were a kind of wake-up call to be vigilant, regardless of whether it is actually Russian sabotage? Thiele: Yes, it was a kind of wake-up call to be vigilant. Regardless of whether it is Russian sabotage, we have to arm ourselves for this issue. There are also other actors such as the Chinese or Islamists who are capable of such acts. "The Russians are not that fast - their leadership acts slowly" But the timing is and remains surprising: possible sabotage actions in Germany shortly after the Ukrainian advance in Kursk? That raises the suspicion that it could be a reaction. Thiele: The Russians are not that fast. Their leadership acts slowly, carefully and in a tactical manner. However, Russian hybrid operations have been running in Europe for several weeks now. NATO initially warned of a suspected increase in hybrid activities by the Russians, and then shortly afterwards of actual activities in Sweden, Finland and London - and also in Bavaria. This means that such hybrid operations are part of Putin's escalation plan. My gut feeling and the European and global perception suggest that this is not yet part of the current portfolio of full-time Russian spies or special forces. It could change, but at this point I don't see it. How do you think Putin will proceed now, both in Ukraine and in terms of hybrid war in other countries? Thiele: In Ukraine, the picture is pretty clear from my point of view. There are several hundred thousand fighters on both sides of the front and around 1,000 Ukrainian fighters in the Kursk region, which is a relatively small dimension in comparison. Putin is consistently continuing the war in Ukraine and is making progress there, for example towards Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, where his troops are only ten kilometers away. This means that the city is now within artillery range and there is a great danger that the front will implode if the Ukrainians cannot hold it. The actions in Kursk serve both to distract Russian units from the front and to draw media attention to this region. In the meantime, hybrid Russian engagement is starting with reconnaissance, arson, cyber attacks and minor sabotage actions among our European neighbors. The focus is moving from Eastern and Southeastern Europe towards the West. So far, Putin has only shown us his hybrid "torture instruments" with which he will probably torture us more severely later in the course of a further escalation of the conflict. "In the end, the Ukrainians will withdraw or they will be destroyed" Do you think the Kursk Plan is working? Thiele: The Ukrainians are doing a good job, particularly in the area of ​​electronic warfare, by disrupting the Russians' communications. This is problematic because their command structure is very strictly hierarchical and every order has to be transmitted through the chain. So far, the Russians have found it difficult to lead their units effectively. However, there are apparently already initial Russian successes against the Ukrainian invasion forces east of Sudzha. Overall, the Ukrainians are using a flexible tactic in which they isolate themselves near Sudzha and carry out mobile operations from there. They scout the area, take soldiers prisoner and try to exploit weak points. Although this is annoying from the Russian perspective, it has not had any decisive military significance so far. The Russians continue to act sluggishly with a poor command structure, but at the end of the day the Ukrainians will either be forced to retreat or be captured or destroyed. This will come at the cost of being under-resourced and under-equipped on the main front, where they remain outgunned.