Russia spy attack: Theresa May has tried to back Vladimir Putin into a corner - the Kremlin will kick back
Analysis: Tit-for-tat diplomatic measures between the two countries will surely follow soon
Theresa May’s statement about the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skirpal was tough, which will not be taken kindly by the Kremlin.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has already described the statement as a “circus show” and having repeatedly said that Moscow was not involved in the poisoning, President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin will probably keep up the rhetoric that Russian involvement is a ludicrous suggestion. But, the use of Novichok, a group of nerve agents known to have been created by the Soviet Union, will see many claim that it is almost like a calling card being left at the scene.
The Prime Minister’s response has tried to close any wriggle room the Russians have, by suggesting they were the only ones capable of producing the nerve agent involved and suggesting that either the attack was directed by Moscow, or they have “lost control” of a deadly poison. Leaving a small window open for a response means that the UK cannot be accused of overstepping their boundaries, but the idea that it will be treated as “an act of force” if not explanation is offered also means the UK can then react with its full range of diplomatic options.
Ms May’s Government will expect to have to do so, with Russia having done nothing but scoff so far at other international spats, including US evidence it was involved in US election meddling, and EU and US sanctions over the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
As for where this spat will lead, there is little doubt that it will get nasty. Mr Putin is involved with a presidential election on Sunday, which he will win handsomely giving him a fresh mandate to respond to threats from abroad. The UK did not have much choice in calling out Moscow, but it plays into Mr Putin’s repeated assertions to Russian citizens that their nation is being unfairly persecuted.
Diplomatic explosions from the UK are likely to be the first step, with any measure sure to bring a tit-for-tat response from Moscow. But things will likely go far beyond that. No doubt the Government delegation to the World Cup in Russia this summer will be reduced or scrapped. The UK is used to imposing EU-wide sanctions over the situation in Ukraine and Crimea, but it will be on its own this time.
The Russian Foreign Ministry has already described the statement as a “circus show” and having repeatedly said that Moscow was not involved in the poisoning, President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin will probably keep up the rhetoric that Russian involvement is a ludicrous suggestion. But, the use of Novichok, a group of nerve agents known to have been created by the Soviet Union, will see many claim that it is almost like a calling card being left at the scene.
The Prime Minister’s response has tried to close any wriggle room the Russians have, by suggesting they were the only ones capable of producing the nerve agent involved and suggesting that either the attack was directed by Moscow, or they have “lost control” of a deadly poison. Leaving a small window open for a response means that the UK cannot be accused of overstepping their boundaries, but the idea that it will be treated as “an act of force” if not explanation is offered also means the UK can then react with its full range of diplomatic options.
Ms May’s Government will expect to have to do so, with Russia having done nothing but scoff so far at other international spats, including US evidence it was involved in US election meddling, and EU and US sanctions over the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
As for where this spat will lead, there is little doubt that it will get nasty. Mr Putin is involved with a presidential election on Sunday, which he will win handsomely giving him a fresh mandate to respond to threats from abroad. The UK did not have much choice in calling out Moscow, but it plays into Mr Putin’s repeated assertions to Russian citizens that their nation is being unfairly persecuted.
Diplomatic explosions from the UK are likely to be the first step, with any measure sure to bring a tit-for-tat response from Moscow. But things will likely go far beyond that. No doubt the Government delegation to the World Cup in Russia this summer will be reduced or scrapped. The UK is used to imposing EU-wide sanctions over the situation in Ukraine and Crimea, but it will be on its own this time.
Mr Trump’s administration then said that Moscow’s consulate in San Francisco, and annexes in New York and Washington, with California officials accusing Russian diplomats of breaking state law in burning unknown “garbage” before the building was vacated.
Meanwhile, US intelligence officials accused the Kremlin of using Russian media organisations it finances to influence US voters in the presidential election, and required Russian state broadcaster RT to register a US-based affiliate company as a “foreign agent”. Moscow responded with Mr Putin signing into law on new measures allowing authorities to list foreign media outlets as “foreign agents”.
Given the nature of the accusations from Britain, Moscow will no doubt also use any measures to respond against the UK Government it can – which could mean a difficult time in the country for outlets like the BBC, as well as UK diplomats across Russia.
Ms May could expect a response from Washington, and Mr Trump, considering the circumstances and the UK-US special relationship. Indeed the calls have instantly started from both sides of the Atlantic for the White House to issue a statement of support. Obliging, White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders called the attack an “outrage” and said the US stands by its “closest ally” ready to offer assistance.
Ms May might have expected more from an initial statement, or indeed a direct message from Mr Trump. But given the President’s “America First” policy platform and the fact the Trump administration has faced criticism within the US for its own response to Russia in recent months – the first response was always likely to be low-key. The State Department angered Congress by saying in January that it did not yet have plans for imposing sanctions called for in a bill that Mr Trump reluctantly signed into law last year, which also called for the publication of a “Kremlin report” naming-and-shaming those connected to Moscow. The list of 210 Russians produced by the Treasury Department angered Moscow, with Mr Putin saying he had considered cutting ties to Washington – but in reality it was a damp squib.
The UK Government will hope that the strength of Ms May’s response will show they are serious and they will be able to effectively hold Moscow’s feet to the fire – but there is no doubt it will be a difficult job.
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