Hello 'Pussy' it's Mrs. Piggle-Wiggle and Pippi Longstocking:
Tweeting first and asking questions later is not a good way to make policy — especially in the Middle East. In a recent salvo, you took credit for a decision by one set of American partners — Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates — to sever relations with another, Qatar. It risks deepening a spat that could undermine the fight against the Islamic State. And it highlights the fragility of a proposed Middle Eastern alliance that you touted as the major achievement of your first foreign trip.
You seem more at home with Middle Eastern autocrats than you do with European democrats. Interests change and diverge; values do not. In their absence, an “Arab NATO” will prove to be a hollow enterprise.
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They ask for some advice.
Here it is:
The personality we are looking for was born in this very beautiful house.
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Send us your mail, please.
Good luck!
Deadline: today - June 20, 2017
Let's visit Betty MacDonald's magical place on Vashon Island.
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President Trump’s Arab Alliance Is a Mirage
Tweeting
first and asking questions later is not a good way to make policy —
especially in the Middle East. In a recent salvo, President Donald J.
Trump took credit for a decision by one set of American partners — Saudi
Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates — to sever relations with
another, Qatar. It risks deepening a spat that could undermine the fight
against the Islamic State. And it highlights the fragility of a
proposed Middle Eastern alliance that Mr. Trump touted as the major
achievement of his first foreign trip.
These
countries have long been at odds over Qatar’s relationships with Iran,
the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. Qatar fancies itself a bridge to all
three; however objectionable their conduct, they are not going away and
need to be engaged. The Saudis, Emiratis and Egyptians see Qatar as an
enabler of extremists, providing them financial support, political
backing or the region’s most powerful megaphone, the Al Jazeera
television network. They also resent tiny Qatar — empowered by
staggering natural gas resources — asserting itself in regional affairs
and cheerleading the Arab Spring.
Until
now, Washington has avoided taking sides, while quietly pressing Qatar
to stop financing extremist groups. Qatar hosts one of the most
important United States air bases in the Middle East: Al Udeid, home to
about 11,000 service members in the anti-Islamic State coalition, most
of them American. Coalition planes flying from that base lead the air
campaign to defeat the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Speaking in
Saudi Arabia last month, Mr. Trump called Qatar “a crucial strategic
partner.”
But
Mr. Trump’s unconditional support for the Saudis during that same visit
also seemed to embolden them to not just break relations with, but also
impose an economic blockade on, Qatar. His tweets taking credit for the
move left the Qataris reeling.
After
Secretary of Defense James Mattis and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson
rushed to the White House to explain the stakes, Mr. Trump appeared to
reverse gears. He pressed the Saudi and Qatari leaders to address their
differences directly and emphasized the importance of a united front in
fighting the Islamic State. American diplomacy seemed to be firing on
all cylinders. Until, that is, Mr. Trump used a press conference with
Romania’s president earlier this month to unleash another volley,
accusing Qatar of financing terrorism “at a very high level” — and
throwing a wrench into his own diplomatic works.
If
all of this seems confusing, consider this: the Trump administration
says it wants to create a military coalition of Arab states, led by
Saudi Arabia, to fight Islamist terrorism. It was as if Mr. Trump was
trying to break his own alliance, described as an “Arab NATO,” before it
had even formed.
If
he was, perhaps it was for the best. The administration is right to
want the Arabs to take more responsibility for the fight against the
Islamic State and, more broadly, for their own security. But a series of
contradictions at the heart of the proposed alliance almost guarantee
it will be a mirage.
First,
where Mr. Trump sees an alliance united against extremism, the Saudis
see a Sunni coalition that will roll back Iran. This could potentially
pull the United States into the sectarian struggle between Sunni and
Shia. Beyond that, Saudi-exported, ultra-conservative Wahhabism, which
breeds intolerance around the world, is no less dangerous to Western
interests than Iran’s support for radicalism, regional meddling and
expansionism.
An
anti-Shia coalition masquerading as a Middle Eastern security alliance
will only fuel those sectarian fires and produce more, not less,
terrorism. Instead of taking sides in that conflict, Washington should
press Riyadh and Tehran to stop feeding it.
Second,
whereas our core alliances in Europe and Asia are defensive, our Arab
partners could use the anti-Islamic State coalition to go on the
offensive, dragging the United States into new misadventures in the
Middle East. Exhibit A is Riyadh’s counterproductive campaign in Yemen
against the Houthi rebels, whom they see as an Iranian proxy.
I
was the first senior American official to meet with Riyadh’s dynamic
Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman after the Saudi intervention in
Yemen in 2015. I reiterated the United States’ commitment to defend
Saudi Arabia against Houthi aggression and to help press the Houthis
back to the bargaining table. Then I asked him Saudi Arabia’s objective
in Yemen itself. “To remove every last vestige of Iranian influence,” he
responded.
Two
years and countless civilian casualties later, the Saudis are still at
it, with Washington torn between backing our ally and being complicit in
a fiasco that’s also leaving a power vacuum filled by the Islamic State
and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula.
Third,
while Mr. Trump expects a Middle Eastern coalition to leverage the
Arabs to do more, they will want to use it to deepen United States
military engagement in the Middle East, while doing as little as
possible themselves. Mr. Trump’s frustration with spendthrift NATO
allies in Europe will pale in comparison to what awaits him in the
Middle East. The members of the existing mutual-assistance structure —
the Gulf Cooperation Council — are risk averse, fearful of reprisals and
divided in their priorities. They will spend more on weapons but are
unlikely to use them effectively against the Islamic State.
Finally,
NATO itself is more than a coalition of common interests — it’s an
alliance of shared values. Mr. Trump seems more at home with Middle
Eastern autocrats than he does with European democrats. Interests change
and diverge; values do not. In their absence, an “Arab NATO” will prove
to be a hollow enterprise.
Antony J. Blinken (@ABlinken),
a managing director of the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global
Engagement, was a deputy secretary of state in the Obama administration
and is a contributing opinion writer.
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