Kremlin critic sentenced - What makes Navalny so dangerous for Putin

By Denis Trubetskoy, Kiev Kremlin critic Navalny must go to prison for three and a half years. That was the decision of a Russian court. But it is far from certain that Putin will now have peace from him. Navalny is different from the rest of the opposition. For Putin, that makes him dangerous. This is an unprecedented trial even for Russia: today, a court in Moscow ruled that the country's best-known opposition figure, Alexei Navalny, must spend three and a half years in prison. He is accused of violating parole conditions from an earlier trial. It is also conceivable that the current charge will be joined later by the alleged embezzlement of donations to his anti-corruption foundation. Expert on Navalny trial "Apparently, the Russian leadership is nervous". That a prison sentence of several years for Nawalny was virtually inevitable was doubted by hardly anyone in Russia. Yet his case is different from that of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the oligarch officially convicted of tax evasion in the noughties. Although he criticized corruption under President Vladimir Putin, he had no serious political ambitions. Navalny, on the other hand, received a solid 27 percent in Moscow's mayoral election back in 2013. Moreover, according to a poll by the independent Levada Center, approval for the oppositionist was already at 20 percent in the fall of 2020, while this figure was only nine percent a year earlier. While a full 50 percent of Russians rated Nawalny's activity as negative, only 18 percent had never heard of the politician - and this despite the fact that he had no access to Russian state media. Since then, Navalny's name recognition has likely increased significantly. His film about Vladimir Putin's alleged luxury villa was viewed more than 100 million times on YouTube in less than two weeks. In addition, Nawalny's arrest upon his return after medical treatment in Germany caused mass protests across the country for two weekends in a row. And although these were manageable just last Sunday, more than 5,000 arrests, according to independent observers, show how seriously the Kremlin takes the protests. At the same time, the person of Navalny is important for the protesters, but they do not depend on his person. There are loyal supporters of the politician, fascinated also by his charisma and rhetorical skills. But in liberal circles, the 44-year-old is controversial because of his past. In the noughties, Navalny co-founded the national democratic movement Volk, took part in the far-right Russian March and publicly agitated against migrant workers from Central Asia, for example. Although all this happened more than ten years ago and such positions were more in the mainstream of Russian politics at the time, they still stick as the main point of criticism of his person. The fact that Navalny is nevertheless currently supported even by skeptical liberals has to do not only with his scandalous poisoning and the undoubtedly arbitrary court proceedings. Russia's opposition has traditionally been divided, and too much self-ambition usually prevents productive cooperation and any attempts at alliances. In contrast, opposition politician Navalny founded a foundation to fight corruption. With its research, for example on former Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, who allegedly financed his luxury villas through charitable organizations, the foundation motivates protests in Russia. Navalny is also willing to negotiate and able to renounce some of his ambitions if the real cause benefits. It is this quality, of all things, that makes Navalny the most important opponent of Kremlin leader Putin. Danger to Putin's power Navalny's strategy of so-called "smart voting" has put the Kremlin on the spot several times. Smart voting" involves voting - primarily in local elections - for the most promising candidate who is not running for the ruling United Russia party. Especially after last year's numerous protests in Khabarovsk, Siberia, where Sergei Furgal, a representative of the official opposition loyal to the Kremlin, was elected governor and suddenly ruled independently, Nawalny's strategy is seen as a threat to Putin's power. A possible prison sentence could turn Navalny into a martyr in the long run, which could become valuable political capital for the prominent opposition figure in the future. This was quite clear to Navalny before his return to Russia. On the other hand, the Kremlin wants the parliamentary elections in the fall to run as smoothly and quietly as possible, despite falling poll numbers for United Russia.