Harris or Trump - When will the first projections be available?

Harris or Trump - When will the first projections be available? Article by RP ONLINE • 16 hours • 3 minutes reading time Washington. The race for the White House may be close. But how does the US election actually work? When will there be reliable projections? And when will the winner be finally decided? Here are the most important questions and answers. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are racing for the White House in the 2024 US election. Will Kamala Harris be the first woman in US history to become president? Or will Donald Trump return? According to polls, the outcome of the US election on November 5th is closer than it has been for a long time. The 60-year-old Democrat is running with Tim Walz, the governor of Minnesota, as her vice presidential candidate. The 78-year-old Republican has chosen J.D. Vance, a young senator from Ohio, as his deputy. Around 155 million people voted four years ago. 81 million of these went to Joe Biden, more than ever before for a candidate. But just 43,000 people in three states were really decisive. This is due to the complicated electoral system. Here are the most important questions and answers. Kamala Harris is the incumbent Vice President of the USA under Joe Biden. After Biden withdrew his candidacy in July, she is now running for the Democrats. Harris was Attorney General in California from 2011 to 2017, and between 2017 and 2021 she represented the state in the Senate. How exactly is the president elected? What are electors? The voters do not directly vote for the president, but they decide who the electors in their respective states should vote for. These delegates will be sent to the formal vote for the president in December. The general rule is that if a candidate is ahead by just one vote in a state, he is awarded all of the electoral votes in that state - except in Nebraska and Maine, all of a state's delegates vote as a block. What are "swing states" or "battleground states"? Based on historical experience, it is already certain who will win in over 40 states. The election campaign is concentrated on seven states in the middle that have voted for one party or the other in the past. In the USA, they are called "swing states" or "battleground states". When will the first projections be available? Because of the many time zones in the USA, there is no uniform closing of polling stations. Instead, the election ends first in the eastern states, with Hawaii bringing up the rear. Unlike in Germany, there is no forecast when the polling stations close, nor is there any projection during the counting. However, if historical results and pre-election polls indicate that a candidate is unlikely to win a state, the major television stations will announce a winner. These statements are considered very reliable, and the stations maintain their own "decision tables" with experts who have decades of experience. How long does the counting take? When will it be clear who will win? Most observers assume that there will be no winner on Tuesday evening, but it is not impossible. In 2020, Joe Biden was declared the winner on the Saturday morning after the election. Unlike in Germany, there are often very different counting methods depending on the state, with computers or only on paper. In very close decisions, most states require a manual recount. Will Trump recognize the election? There is a fear that Trump and the Republicans will try again to challenge the election result if Harris wins. In some states, the votes cast in person on election day are announced first, and only then are the votes received by mail or in person in the days before the election counted. Democrats in particular tend to vote in advance, which initially puts Republicans in a better position when the vote is counted, and over time, more votes are added for the Democrats. That is why Trump claimed on election night in 2020 that he was in an unassailable lead and had won, even though not all of the votes had been counted. Almost all observers believe it is certain that he will try to do the same this year. What happens after the election? After certification in the states and possible hand recounts, the electors will meet in their respective states on December 17 to vote. In January, the result will be certified again in the Senate, with the Vice President as chair. This meeting led to the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, because Trump's then Vice President Mike Pence wanted to recognize the election.