Trump and the Russian war of aggression: Is there still hope for Ukraine, Mr. Neumann?

Tagesspiegel Trump and the Russian war of aggression: Is there still hope for Ukraine, Mr. Neumann? Article by Peter R. Neumann • 23 million • 2 minutes reading time Trump's election victory is bad news for Ukraine - and good news for Putin. Europe is also to blame for this, explains expert Peter Neumann in his column "Welt im Blick". With the election of Donald Trump, the prospects for Ukraine have worsened dramatically overnight. This is primarily Trump's fault, of course, and that of his isolationist vice president, J.D. Vance. In their opinion, the Russian war of aggression is not an American problem, but a European one. In their view, the times when the USA should be concerned with European problems are over. But it is also Europe's fault. Trump has never made a secret of his intentions. And his election victory was never unlikely - quite the opposite. Europe could have prepared for this situation. But in most European capitals the motto was: We hope for the best. Let's wait and see what happens. There is therefore currently no realistic plan for how America's contribution to support Ukraine could be replaced if Trump actually pulls the plug. Nothing that European politicians have announced since last week comes anywhere close to what would be required. According to figures from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, American military support for Ukraine currently amounts to more than 55 billion dollars - five times as much as the German contribution and more than all other supporting states combined. Even if European states suddenly found the money somewhere, there is a lack of production capacity, especially for ammunition. And no one in Europe can replace the intelligence information that Ukraine receives from the US's global spy network. Europe's Sunday speeches In short: the emperor is naked. Despite all the Sunday speeches, Europe will not be able to defend Ukraine without American support. The country is threatened with a catastrophic defeat. My prediction: As early as next year, the conflict along the current front line will be "frozen" and Ukraine will be de facto divided. Russia will "Russify" the acquired territories over the years and continue to cause unrest in the other part of the country. The result is a Ukraine that will never have the opportunity to move towards the West. An open wound for decades. And for Europe: a security and geopolitical confession of failure.