What's at play in Iranian protests?
Story highlights
- Why are these protests happening? There are multiple reasons, experts say
- They say the government won't react well to what it considers outside interference
(CNN)The
largest public display of discontent in Iran since the 2009 Green
Movement has brought about a series of tweets from US President Donald
Trump, pushback from the Iranian government and a scene that might have
been unfathomable a decade ago -- protesters challenging the rule of
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
CNN spoke with several experts about the ongoing unrest in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Why is this happening?
The
protests, which began Thursday night, are a reaction to the sputtering
economy, rampant corruption and rising fuel and food prices.
But there's something larger at play.
Iranians
are angry, experts say, because they expected life to get better when
severe sanctions were lifted after a deal was reached in 2015 between
the P5+1 and Iran over its nuclear program. The P5+1 is the five
permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany.
While restrictions on financial, energy and transportation sectors were removed, hundreds of Iranian entities were not taken off the blacklists. And the United States has moved to create new sanctions over other violations, including a rocket launch this past summer.
Trita
Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council, and other
experts say endemic economic mismanagement and corruption have left
Iranians disenchanted.
Government
policies have brought about higher unemployment and inflation. And
there's a lack of sturdy international investment, Parsi added.
"The
nuclear deal is overwhelmingly supported by the Iranian public, but
there was an expectation that much more economic development would come
out of it," Parsi said.
So is this just about bread and gas prices?
No.
Years of political, economic and social grievances have driven citizens
to the streets in the largest protests since 2009, said Reza Marashi,
research director for the National Iranian American Council.
"Economic sanctions have exacerbated all of those Iranian-origin economic problems," he said.
"I
don't think you can separate the economic from the political," he told
CNN. "The government has an opportunity and a responsibility to address
legitimate grievances that are being expressed."
Alireza
Nader, a senior international analyst and Iran researcher at the RAND
Corporation in Washington, says people have also lost trust in Iranian
President Hassan Rouhani.
"The
government is viewed as highly corrupt, increasing inequality is seen by
the population as really a form of injustice," he said, adding "this
was supposed to be a system that delivered justice to the people after
the revolution of 1979 and it has failed."
Karim
Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, said there's also a push among citizens to secure equal rights
for women.
Nader argued women in
Iran have been fighting for decades for equal rights, but especially in
the last few years, that push has become stronger.
"Women
in Iran are highly educated. They are involved in the workforce,
arguably more so than any other country in the Middle East, and they are
continually suppressed. This is part of their fight to gain their
freedom and their rights," he says.
An Iranian vice president said Saturday the government would work harder to resolve economic hardships.
Are these protests similar to those in 2009?
While
the new protests are intense, thus far they are nowhere as big as what
occurred in 2009's Green Movement, in which millions took part.
Marashi said this may be more of a civil rights movement than a revolutionary one.
There
are other distinctions, said Sadjadpour. While the 2009 protests
primarily occurred in Tehran, this week's came in government
strongholds, such as Qom and Mashhad, known as stout religious centers.
And this wave of protests seems to be a direct challenge to the rule of the Supreme Leader.
"This
is something that didn't happen in 2009. This is a huge thing to happen
in Iran," said Nic Robertson, CNN's international diplomatic editor.
"People don't say that publicly on the streets."
One resident told CNN of witnessing a protester tearing down a poster of Khamenei near Tehran University.
Are Trump's tweets helping or hurting?
The consensus from experts: US President Donald Trump's tweets about the situation are not helpful.
Rather, they say, the world should show solidarity with the Iranian people by supporting freedom of expression.
Trump
has tweeted "The world is watching!" and that "oppressive regimes
cannot endure forever." The President said the Iranian leadership is
squandering wealth in order to fund terrorism elsewhere.
Marashi said the protest movement "is of an Iranian origin and it will be of an Iranian ending."
Parsi
said the protests are not a US issue. "This is not about Trump, and
Trump stepping into this is not necessarily helpful, because he doesn't
carry any credibility in Iran."
Comments
against the Iranian regime may not only be unbeneficial -- they may
bring about a pretext for crackdowns, said Sadjadpour.
Iranian Foreign Ministry
spokesman Bahram Qassemi said the Iranian people gave no credence to
"opportunistic" remarks by Trump or his administration.
So what should be said or done?
Iranian-American
analyst Holly Dagres said the best thing for the rest of the world to
do is wait and see what happens next in Iran, where protesters have been
heard on videos distributed on social media as chanting "Death to
Rouhani," a reference to President Rouhani
"The
fact that we are actually making statements that we think are in favor
of the Iranian people, they are hurting them more than anything," she
said.
How is the story getting out?
As
was the case in 2009, images and messages from citizen journalists are
coming out via social media. The government controls the media and does
not allow freedom of speech.
Several
Iranians were shot during protests late Saturday, a source told CNN,
after Iran's government warned citizens against holding "illegal" public
gatherings.
Without
press access, the world is seeing what may be a skewed version of
what's happening in Iran. "Independent verification of facts (is) hard
to come by," said CNN's Robertson.
But images often are powerful.
In 2009, a video showing the last moments of protester Neda Agha-Soltan
catapulted her into a symbol of the burgeoning reform movement in Iran.
"That had a chilling impact on the protests in Iran and it had a
chilling impact around the world," Robertson said.
What's coming next?
The
2009 Green Movement lasted for months; this round of protests is only
days old. It's unclear just how much dissent the government will allow.
Sadjadpour said: "In 1979,
Iranians experienced a revolution without democracy; today they aspire
for democracy without a revolution."
He
expanded on that, telling CNN that he believes a young Iranian society
is seeking a more liberal, progressive nation, but is unlikely to take
up arms -- even if any were available. They are up against a government
they know is willing to use force to keep power, he said.
"Despite
the fact that many Iranians would have revolutionary ends, I don't
think they are willing to pursue revolutionary means en masse the same
way, for example, Syrians or Egyptians or others have over the last past
five years in the Middle East."
But, Sadjadpour tweeted Friday, even if the protests are squashed -- as he expects -- that's not the end.
"The resentment toward the regime will remain and will eventually resurface in the future."
