Guest article by Sönke Neitzel - Zelensky's army chief confirms the bitter fact of war that is forcing the West to act

FOCUS online Guest article by Sönke Neitzel - Zelensky's army chief confirms the bitter fact of war that is forcing the West to act Article by FOCUS online expert Sönke Neitzel • 3 hours. A stalemate appears to have occurred in the Ukraine war. Neither Ukraine nor the Russian invaders recorded any significant gains in territory. Military historian Sönke Neitzel explains what this means for the West. The Ukrainian Chief of General Staff Valeriy Zalushnyi recently found unusually clear words in the Economist. A major breakthrough can no longer be expected. Ukraine now needs a technological leap to get out of the stalemate. One is reminded of the year 1915, when the French first stopped the German advance, but then bloodily failed with their first counter-offensive in Champagne. Back then, no one really knew what was going to happen next. The war lasted three more years and cost millions of lives. Army chief confirms: counteroffensive has failed In his guest article, the Ukrainian Chief of General Staff confirmed what anyone who wanted to see could see: the counteroffensive, in which so much hope was placed, has failed. It is not difficult to understand why this is the case: the lack of numerical superiority, the inferiority in the air, the long preparation time that the Russian armed forces used to dig in deeply between the Dnieper and Wuldedahr, the high losses suffered by the Ukrainian army The all too short training period of the new associations was a serious problem. The West's hesitant arms deliveries, which never occurred to the extent promised, also reduced the chances of success. In the general staffs of the NATO countries, the war experiences are carefully evaluated and people ask themselves whether there will be any war of movement in the future. At the front, every movement is immediately detected by armored units and smashed with artillery, helicopters and drones. German, French or British armored brigades would also have failed due to the tasks facing the Ukrainian units. So are we experiencing a revolutionization of war? Skepticism is appropriate. Each new development, no matter how revolutionary it initially felt, provoked a response. The introduction of the crossbow was no different than that of firearms, artillery or aircraft. It is not yet clear what the answer to the drone swarms and modern artillery warfare will be - nor whether it will be found in this war. The West is left with four options What follows from all this? The West can no longer hide behind empty words. “Ukraine must win the war,” said Annalena Baerbock and many others. Of course, the West, with its great economic power, would be able to surpass Russia in an arms race. But obviously neither the federal government nor the other western states - including the USA - are ready for this. But if you don't want to go all-in in the conventional area in order to force quick success, the consequence is, in the best case, a long struggle for Ukraine that will last for many years. To achieve this, Kiev must be permanently supported with extensive arms deliveries - in the hope that Russia will one day give up or collapse. The third option is negotiations. In the current situation, it will hardly be possible to achieve anything more than a ceasefire on the current front line. It is questionable whether Russia will even agree to this, as Putin undoubtedly assumes that he has the upper hand. Kiev also does not seem to be ready to take such a step (yet). Such an undertaking only has a chance of success if the West continues to give Ukraine massive support. The last scenario should not be ignored either: Ukraine loses. Nobody can rule out that the Russian armed forces will achieve a decisive success in the fight against a Ukraine that is only half-heartedly supported by the West, which will cause the state to collapse. The consequences would be devastating. Millions of refugees would set out and the signal would be to all autocrats in the world that it is worth waging war. In terms of security policy, this would create a completely new threat to Europe. It's finally dawning on German politics These days it is dawning on German politicians that the war will not simply go away, like a bad dream. It can also end in disaster. Boris Pistorius is the first politician of distinction who has the courage to speak out about the obvious consequences. He demands that we must become capable of war in order to be able to defend our Europe.