Monday, October 2, 2023
New survey: Even traffic light voters wade off traffic lights - FDP is moving towards the abyss
Mercury
New survey: Even traffic light voters wade off traffic lights - FDP is moving towards the abyss
Article by Florian Naumann •
5 hours
AfD also loses
New survey: Even traffic light voters wade off traffic lights - FDP is moving towards the abyss
Current surveys offer the traffic light coalition little reason to be happy - the comparison with the Merkel years is particularly painful.
Berlin - Almost exactly 20 years ago, Rudi Völler became upset in a memorable way on live TV: after a dismal 0-0 draw in Iceland and critical words in the studio, the national coach was outraged, the media was still constructing a “deeper low”. Of course, the national team itself provided the pass.
Similar to Völler, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) may feel like the head of the traffic light coalition these days. For weeks, almost every new survey has brought a new low. And in fact: a Forsa survey published on Monday (October 2nd) on behalf of the broadcasters RTL and n-tv also provided embarrassing details about the demographically measurable dissatisfaction of eligible voters with the federal government. What was particularly striking in the “Trend Barometer” of the two channels was the direct comparison with Angela Merkel's predecessor GroKo.
Survey on the federal election: Even traffic light voters are harsh on the traffic lights
Shortly before the halfway point of the traffic light coalition, 46 percent of those surveyed said that the Scholz government was doing a worse job than Merkel's black-red alliance. Almost a third did not recognize any major differences - which results in a three-quarters majority of 78 percent of those surveyed who have seen at least no improvement in government action since the end of 2021. Only 19 percent did that.
Possibly even more painful: Even among the declared supporters of the three traffic light parties, only a minority saw progress compared to Merkel's last legislation. In the Forsa survey, 47 percent of Green voters were still satisfied. Among SPD supporters it was only 38 percent - in the FDP camp only 13 percent of those surveyed recognized an improvement. And this despite the fact that, as is well known, the Liberals were not represented in the last Merkel government. “Better not to govern than to govern badly,” the quip from FDP leader Christian Lindner, could take on a new meaning at this point.
Traffic light parties stumble in survey: FDP continues to decline - SPD improves at a low level
In the current “Trend Barometer” Sunday question, the FDP is also the loser among the three traffic light parties. The Liberals have lost one percentage point compared to the previous week - and are now only at 5 percent. Hypothetically, they would be at risk of missing the five percent threshold. The difference to the 2021 election result (11.5 percent) is also striking. Current surveys shortly before the election in Bavaria also see the FDP in danger of missing out on entering the new parliament. Given dwindling party ties and short-term electoral decisions, the surveys are of course only a very vague indication of the mood in the country.
According to Forsa data, the Greens remain at 14 percent. This value is also close to the 2021 election result of 14.8 percent. Scholz's SPD, in turn, gains one percentage point compared to the week - but with 18 percent in the RTL/n-tv Sunday question, it is still far away from the former Chancellor's level. In September 2021, the Social Democrats had 25.7 percent.
Unlike in the summer surveys, there is no higher peak for the AfD this time: the right-wing populists fell by one percentage point in the RTL-ntv Sunday question for the second week in a row. According to the Forsa survey, the figure is currently 20 percent. Just two weeks ago, the “Trend Barometer” presented a record number for the AfD. Meanwhile, the Union rose to 28 percent. The Left is stagnating at 4 percent, which is not suitable for the Bundestag.
AfD loses in new survey - Migration ranks fourth among the most important issues
It remains unclear what these survey developments have to say with regard to the recently very loud migration debates. In the middle of this dispute, the Union and the SPD were each able to gain one percentage point in the assessment of their political competence: 15 percent of those surveyed now consider the CDU and CSU to be the most competent party, 9 percent the SPD - only 7 percent attest to the AfD; two percentage points less than the previous week. A whopping 56 percent of those surveyed did not attribute competence to any Bundestag party. However, this value was significantly higher in 2022.