Federal election 2025: The SPD is threatened with implosion

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung Federal election 2025: The SPD is threatened with implosion Mona Jaeger • 16 million • 4 minutes reading time What hasn't gone wrong in previous SPD election campaigns. And what has the SPD done right this time? Actually. It has a solid, well-calculated program that is cheaper than that of its competitors. Other parties are leaving funding gaps, the Social Democrats want to tweak the debt brake instead. This time there was no precipitous birth of the candidate, as was the case with Peer Steinbrück and Martin Schulz, candidates without a thematic foundation. But perhaps this is where the problem begins. A precipitous birth would have done the SPD some good in this election campaign. Because Olaf Scholz didn't bring too little to this election campaign, but too much. Too many bad economic figures, too meandering a line in Ukraine policy, too many horror stories after several attacks. For too long, the view has been that the CDU/CSU and their candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, are far ahead and that Scholz will be able to catch up like in 2021 and remain chancellor in a "parallel universe" (Christian Lindner) that is only accessible to him. Would Pistorius have been the better choice? With Scholz, there was no longer any new beginning, no change, nothing that could point upwards for him. Would it have been different with Boris Pistorius? That will be the crucial question on election night from 6:01 p.m. And precisely because it can never be answered with certainty, it is likely to lead to some unrest in the SPD. Or even to implosion. The examples of migration and foreign policy illustrate the difficulties. After the murderous act in Aschaffenburg, the Chancellor announced consequences. But they never came. He has apparently reached the end of his options. Scholz has tightened his migration policy several times in the past three years, perhaps even reaching his pain threshold. But he did not want to go any further. His party would not allow that either. Would Pistorius have wanted and been able to continue? He could have at least created a moment of surprise without having to question his own policies at the same time. What such a new tone might have sounded like could be guessed from Pistorius' response to the American Vice President J. D. Vance. Pistorius was the one who confronted Vance at the Munich Security Conference on Friday. Scholz did not speak until a day later. In the SPD, they have been talking for some time about Scholz as the chancellor who is still good: at least he got emotional in the Bundestag, at least the election campaign events were well attended. In the Willy Brandt House, they were already very worried after the European elections in June, and not just because of the miserable result of 13.9 percent. The post-election survey showed that many citizens do not think what Scholz says is bad. But they do not believe that he acts in the same way. Content can be changed - but a lack of credibility? SPD relies on anti-Merz course There are undisputed successes of the SPD-led federal government: overcoming the energy crisis after the Russian attack on Ukraine or actually curbing irregular migration. But they have not stuck with the citizens. Just like the financial and tax policy proposals. Also because the SPD was only too happy to switch to an anti-Merz course and to take aim at the opposing candidate instead of relying on its own strengths. This is condensed in an official social media tile on which a citizen can be seen saying: "I'm voting for Olaf Scholz because he is not Friedrich Merz." Some are already publicly documenting their distance: Munich's mayor and Social Democrat Dieter Reiter stayed away from an election campaign event with Scholz in his city. It was also striking who stayed in the quiet corner during the turbulence surrounding Scholz's court jester remarks to the black CDU politician Joe Chialo: Pistorius and party leader Lars Klingbeil. Because too much proximity to Scholz can still be dangerous when it comes to sorting out and leading the SPD after election day. If the Social Democrats do not experience another upswing in the last few days, they will be faced with bitter messages on election night: plummeting from first place to third place, the worst result ever in a federal election. Scholz has already announced that he will not accept any office under Chancellor Merz. But would he still want to sit down at the negotiating table for coalition talks? With what mandate? Would his party allow that? Scholz does not hold any party office, and even failed in his attempt to become chairman a few years ago. Real affection has not developed between his party and him in the three years he has been chancellor.