Expert on Trump-Putin plan: "The USA has abandoned Ukraine"

Berliner Zeitung Expert on Trump-Putin plan: "The USA has abandoned Ukraine" Nicolas Butylin • 40 million • 3 minutes reading time Europe will probably only realize the day after what happened on Wednesday evening. "I think a bomb has exploded for Europe," says Markus Reisner to the Berliner Zeitung. The phone call between US President Donald Trump and Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin presents Ukraine, but also the EU, with facts. "The crisis meetings will begin in the European capitals on Thursday morning at the latest," says the colonel in the Austrian Federal Army. Europe as the big loser in an upcoming deal between Washington and Moscow? The dynamic that is unfolding in the Ukraine question is remarkable. "We have a President Trump who, before he talks to the Europeans or Ukrainians, talks to President Putin and slams the result onto the table for his allies in a cool and power-political manner," says Reisner. The hopes of the European Ukraine allies that Keith Kellogg, the US special envoy for Ukraine, would bring the Europeans on board at the Munich Security Conference taking place this weekend have now evaporated. "The USA has abandoned Ukraine," says Reisner, who has analyzed and assessed the war situation in Ukraine in recent years for the Berliner Zeitung. The battered morale of the Ukrainian soldiers, who of course also hear the news of an impending Trump-Putin deal from the trenches in the Donbass, will continue to suffer. Even if Reisner assumes that Ukraine will continue to resist Russia, he does not rule out that the front in eastern and southern Ukraine could collapse in view of the current dynamic. Another key question is whether Europe can compensate for the lack of US aid. "The Europeans must now develop a plan quickly," demands the military expert. For a long time, the major EU member states have relied on the United States. The state of the European armies is therefore not in a position to replace the Americans' military support for Kiev. On the one hand, Europe does not have the military-industrial capacities of the USA; on the other hand, lengthy bureaucratic processes slow down the modernization of the armies. Security expert Claudia Major and Lieutenant Colonel Aldo Kleemann from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs write in a publication on the parameters of a possible ceasefire: "The geographical situation is an immense challenge. The border between Ukraine and Russia is around 2300 km long. In addition, there is the approximately 1100 km border between Ukraine and Belarus, which is closely linked to Russia. The current front line stretches over around 900 km. Russia currently has around 600,000 soldiers deployed." Military expert Reisner believes that the Europeans, purely numerically, could support Ukraine sufficiently. But that is only in theory. "However, the political will is lacking," says the Austrian, who points out that the EU is divided on key issues relating to Ukraine. While the Baltic states, Poles and Scandinavians are calling for extensive and sustained military support for Ukraine, Hungary and Slovakia are the biggest opponents of such a policy within the EU and NATO. Without the USA, Europe cannot keep up with Russia in the area of ​​military deterrence either. "If we now talk about deterrence, then we must use the weapon system that is the most devastating and important - and I know that sounds harsh and we don't want to hear it - nuclear weapons," says Reisner. "And here I say clearly that NATO only works because it is essentially supported by the USA. If Washington's nuclear potential disappears, NATO will only have a very limited deterrent capability that is on a par with the Russian arsenal." For Reisner, something crucial has also happened. "Do you remember when Barack Obama called Russia a regional power in 2014," says Reisner. Trump, on the other hand, called Putin a "world leader." "With the phone call, the USA has effectively revised the narrative that Russia is only a regional actor," says the military historian. The USA would now negotiate the outcome of the Ukraine war with Russia on an equal footing. "This is a true paradigm shift, a serious turning point." Especially for European security policy.