Friday, February 7, 2025

Guest commentary by Gabor Steingart - Trump's buddy-buddy was Musk's best investment - but the billionaire lives dangerously

FOCUS online Guest commentary by Gabor Steingart - Trump's buddy-buddy was Musk's best investment - but the billionaire lives dangerously 5 hours • 4 minutes reading time Elon Musk has made many good investment decisions. But the most rewarding thing for him could be building a relationship with Donald Trump. But the story should serve as a warning to the billionaire. What winning the lottery is for a lottery player, Donald Trump's election victory was for Elon Musk. The Republican was rewarded with power by the voters, the entrepreneur was bathed in dollars by Trump. The election victory that he helped bring about brought billions in value to Tesla alone, Musk's only listed company. The Shining City upon a Hill: America is dominating the global economy again. In a globally friendly economic climate (except in Germany), economic optimism has returned and the stock market is showing a historic high valuation. This is the tailwind that every investor needs and which benefits Elon Musk in many ways. Here is the balance sheet of a political speculator whose bet on various investments paid off: Investment 1: The Trump put Musk's most profitable investment was his relationship with Trump. He had previously supported the election campaigns of Obama and Hillary Clinton and was a vocal critic of Trump during the 2016 election: "His character does not cast a good light on the USA," he said on CNBC. After agreeing to a meeting with the president-elect in December 2016, urged on by Peter Thiel, he said afterwards, according to Musk biographer Walter Isaacson: "He seemed a little crazy." When he met him again later, after Trump had just moved into the White House, he stuck to his guns: "Trump is probably one of the world's best talkers." When Trump withdrew from the Paris climate protection agreement shortly afterwards, Musk left the president's advisory board. Tempi passati: As Trump's power unfolded, Elon Musk reversed course. He turned to the Trump camp, where he went from being a critic to a fanatical fanboy. From then on, Musk kissed the Lord's ring: "It is thanks to him that the future of civilization is secured." Investment 2: Tesla needs protection Today, Tesla is worth more than all other car companies in the world combined, although it does not preach technological openness (like all German suppliers) and is only responsible for around two percent of global automobile sales. Especially now, when a slump in sales in Europe (minus 59 percent in Germany in January) is causing problems for the company - which Musk joined in 2004 as an investor and later as CEO - Musk needs political support. Since the e-market is also a highly political market (CO2 taxation, charging infrastructure, purchase premiums), Musk must try to influence the talks with the European Union and also with the Chinese. His deal: He is exchanging political allegiance for economic protection. Investment 3: SpaceX with increased reputation The company, founded in 2002, develops rockets ("Falcon 9", "Starship") and supplies the ISS space station. The state, as a major client, is positive about Musk. Despite many false launches of the latest rocket "Starship", Trump used his victory speech on election night to praise the technological brilliance of his friend Musk: "He is a special guy, a super genius. We have to protect our geniuses, we don't have many of them." And immediately formulated a plan for the future: "We will pursue our 'Manifest Destiny' to the stars and launch American astronauts to put up the 'Stars and Stripes' on the planet Mars." Trump as the godfather of the space travel business model is indispensable for Musk today. The US President is the best influencer that money can't buy. Investment 4: Starlink secures government contracts The SpaceX subsidiary operates the largest satellite network in the world (7,000 are currently circling the globe). The company has been awarded a contract by the Pentagon to supply internet terminals for use in Ukraine. After Hurricane Helene, Trump spoke to Musk about the use of Starlink satellites - more government contracts are likely to follow. The previously private company is due to be listed on the stock exchange soon, although a date is still pending. And Trump is the (secret) chief seller of the stock. Investment 5: X (formerly Twitter) is creditworthy again The social media channel that many have already written off, which Elon Musk bought for a very high price of $44 billion, is once again a sought-after commodity. The banks are now in a position to sell a large portion of the loans they granted Musk to finance the deal to other banks. The Financial Times reported this yesterday. Until now, these loans were unsellable, which annoyed Wall Street banks, who like to spread all risks outside their own balance sheets. The Financial Times quotes an asset manager familiar with the deal who explains what has changed: "Elon's seal of approval: he is a FOP - a friend of the president." We learn: Elon Musk is an entrepreneur, pioneer and opportunist all in one. His relationship with the American president is the most mysterious, but at the same time most effective relationship that any modern entrepreneur has ever had with political power. Looking at the history of such connections, one can only advise him to be cautious. Musk lives dangerously: Putin's once close friend, the oil oligarch and Yukos boss Mikhail Khodorkovsky, first ended up in prison and then in exile. The media tycoon Alfred Hugenberg, who paved the way for his supposed friend Adolf Hitler, was deposed shortly after the seizure of power and later expropriated. At the Nuremberg War Crimes Tribunal, a nasty word was invented for the favorites of power that is still in use today. They were called "fellow travelers."