Russian offensive stalls: Ukraine exploits weakness to counterattack

Daily Wrap Russian offensive stalls: Ukraine exploits weakness to counterattack Sławek Zagórski • 12 hrs • 4 mins read Over the past two weeks, the intensity of Russian attacks has decreased. This is not due to Donald Trump's actions, but to the exhaustion of Russian forces after two very intense months of fighting. The Ukrainians, for their part, have changed their defensive tactics. For two weeks, there has been a Russian operational pause. The heavy fighting that has been going on since November has exhausted both sides. Currently, the Russians are carrying out offensive actions only near Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo and Chasiv Yar. However, their intensity is significantly lower than two weeks ago. The Russians are simply trying to maintain constant pressure where they had made some progress in late January. On the entire active front, which is about 50-60 km wide, about 100 combat contacts take place daily, with about 30-40% taking place in the direction of Pokrovsk. There the Russians are trying to reach the border of Donetsk Oblast. For the Kremlin, this section of the front is of primarily propaganda importance. At Pokrovsk they are closest to the border of Donetsk Oblast, and the "liberation" of this area is one of Vladimir Putin's promises. Currently, there are only about 2-3 km to the border. As expected, in recent days the Russians have been attacking along the T0406 road and the highway connecting Solone with Novoserhiivka in order to reach their goal as quickly as possible. Nevertheless, reaching the border between Donetsk Oblast and Dnipropetrovsk has no tactical significance. It does not facilitate the capture of Pokrovsk in any way, but serves only as Kremlin propaganda. For now, however, the attackers are not making any progress westward. The Ukrainians have not only strengthened their defenses, but have also begun local counterattacks, which have forced the attackers to move to the defense northeast of the city. Russian mistakes The Russians eventually managed to occupy the entire Velika Novosilka, despite the Kremlin having reported its capture several times. However, they were unable to advance further, and Ukrainian units in this sector remained functional. Subunits retreated behind the Mokri Jaly River, thus proving the Russian claims and films showing alleged encirclements of Ukrainian soldiers to be fiction. Covering troops remained on the eastern bank of the river, which continue to conduct counterattacks to prevent the Russians from crossing the river. This could be problematic for another reason - they lack the means to cross, and - unexpectedly for this time of year - thaw is possible. The Russians are having even greater difficulty retaking occupied areas of Kursk Oblast. After heavy losses, North Korean units were withdrawn to the second line to await reinforcements. The rotation of Russian units is also being carried out, which the Ukrainians are trying to take advantage of. A big surprise for the Russians was the Ukrainian attack southeast of Sudzha. The Ukrainians carried out an attack there with a reinforced mechanized battle group, covered by tanks. They managed to drive a wedge at the junction between a parachute regiment and a mechanized regiment and penetrate almost 8 km deep into the Russian positions. The Russians were able to slow down and stop the attack only after the involvement of the 177th Guards Marine Infantry Brigade. The strike slightly improved the tactical situation of the Ukrainians in the eastern part of the breakthrough, however, the Russians continue to try to recapture lost areas, attacking mainly from the northwest along the Rylsk-Korenevo-Sudzha road. What is certain is that in the coming weeks the Russians will again try to exert pressure to recapture Sudzha. This time, however, Putin has not set any “final deadlines.” The Kremlin, however, will try to recapture the territories at any cost. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, stated that “Russia has never considered and will never consider the issue of exchanging its territory. Naturally, the Ukrainian units will be expelled from this land. Those that are not destroyed will be expelled.” Change of tactics Despite the constant pressure of the Russians on the key sections, a significant difference in the conduct of offensive operations can be seen compared to the fighting in January. Assault troops carry out attacks on a narrower section with smaller forces and most often without the support of tanks, but only with armored personnel carriers that serve as fire support vehicles. This is the best way to defend the area.