Government crisis in France: Barnier defeated, Macron shaky

FR Government crisis in France: Barnier defeated, Macron shaky Stefan Brändle • 1 hour • 4 minutes reading time Vote of no confidence The French government of Prime Minister Barnier could be overthrown by parliament today. President Macron is increasingly losing political control. An analysis. Paris – It was a final, dramatic appeal to the common sense of the MPs: They should be aware of their responsibility and think of the overriding interests of the nation, warned Michel Barnier on Tuesday evening on the most important television channels. "The situation is serious," said the conservative head of government. "We have to be careful because there are strong tensions in the country." The call probably came too late: The right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen then confirmed, unimpressed, that her Rassemblement National (RN) would support the Left Front's motion of no confidence in the National Assembly. Arithmetically, the two opposition forces have a majority of 289 out of 577 seats. Barnier's days in the Hôtel Matignon, the seat of government, seemed numbered; at that point, no one in Paris was in any doubt about the outcome of the vote, which only took place after this issue went to press. Even President Emmanuel Macron, who was on a state visit to Saudi Arabia and from there denounced the "unbearable cynicism" of the opposition, is said to be brooding over Barnier's successor in his free time. "Censure" in France: Government overthrow announced The trigger for the announced government overthrow was an abrupt change of course by Le Pen. Until now, the RN founder had tolerated Barnier's minority center-right government. In order to increase her chances in the 2027 presidential elections, she has been posing as a state republican since the 73-year-old prime minister was nominated in early September; Barnier thus got several proposals through. On Monday, however, Le Pen announced that she was rejecting the social security budget and supporting a motion of no confidence - known in France as "censure" - from the left. This was tantamount to a death sentence for the Barnier government, which was not even three months old. France: According to polls, Le Pen is leading in most population and age categories Le Pen did not really say why she is dropping Barnier. Two reasons are likely to have brought about the turnaround. The first is due to electoral politics: According to polls, Le Pen is leading in most population and age categories on Wednesday - except for senior citizens. The fact that Barnier wants to postpone the automatic cost-of-living adjustment in the 2025 budget by six months is a godsend for Le Pen: With her veto on this de facto pension cut, she hopes to win over the retired electorate. Power struggle in France - Expert: Government on the verge of collapse, Le Pen joins vote of no confidence The second - and probably decisive - reason is tactical in nature. In mid-November, the public prosecutor's office in the RN trial for embezzlement of EU funds not only demanded a - modifiable - prison sentence for Le Pen, but also that she be ineligible for at least five years. This is a political bombshell: the three-time presidential candidate would be prevented from running again in 2027; Le Pen's ten-year attempt to get to the Elysée would be stopped. For Le Pen, everything is at stake - the right-wing populist needs the early French election The verdict, which will change everything for Le Pen, is scheduled for March 31. To get ahead of this, Le Pen apparently wants to try to provoke a new presidential election beforehand. The first step is to overthrow the Barnier government. This will inevitably come back to haunt Macron. Because the Barnier government has the president to thank for its fragility: he called new elections in June without any need - and lost. Since then, extreme forces have dominated Parisian politics - Le Pen on the right, Jean-Luc Mélenchon's "Unyielding France" on the left. Macron is politically isolated; at 17 percent, his popularity is lower than that of any of his predecessors. "The king is naked," commented the left-wing news portal Regards this week, briefly and succinctly. Macron has hardly any options left. For constitutional reasons, new elections are not possible until next summer, and until then any Macron government will be powerless under the grip of Le Pen and Mélenchon. If Le Pen were to overthrow the next government again soon, Macron would not be able to hold on much longer either. Even today, there are increasing calls for the president to resign and clear the way for a new beginning. The "Unyielding" have already collected 378,000 votes in a petition calling for Macron to be removed from office; On the right, not only RN MPs, but also liberal ex-ministers such as Jean-François Copé are suggesting that the fallen head of state should resign.