BEIJING — No part of the world seems too small, too near or too far for China’s globe-trotting president, Xi Jinping.
He has traveled to the tiny Pacific islands of Fiji, toured the neighboring nations of Central Asia and signaled his interest in Antarctica
with a visit to Tasmania, off Australia’s southern coast. This month,
he sent Chinese warships to dock in London, a reminder of how much has
changed since British gunboat diplomacy humiliated China in the 19th
century.
Mr. Xi is pushing a vision of national rejuvenation
during the current Communist Party congress, which is expected to give
him a second five-year term by Wednesday. And central to his ambitions
is a far-reaching drive to restore China to what he considers its
rightful place as a global power.
“Xi’s
aggressive diplomacy largely comes from his own aspirations, beliefs
and strategic requirements,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor of
international relations at Renmin University.
Mr. Xi has already enjoyed remarkable success expanding Chinese influence, not only in Asia, but also in Africa, Europe and as far away as South America.
He has benefited from President Trump’s election, which has made it
easier for him to present China as a stable, responsible alternative to
an erratic, inward-looking United States.
Yet
signs of friction in different parts of the world raise questions about
how long China’s winning streak can continue, and point to the
challenges that Mr. Xi faces in a second term as he presses the
assertive brand of foreign policy he favors.
In Australia, the government is vexed by what it sees as Beijing’s interference in
domestic politics. In Europe, politicians are raising an alarm over
heavy-handed trade tactics aimed at acquiring foreign technology. In
Southeast Asia and Africa, there are complaints about a new era of
Chinese colonialism.
China’s ties with two regional heavyweights — Japan and India — remain strained, and Mr. Xi faces an unusually precarious situation on the Korean Peninsula,
with both the North and the South defying him, one building a nuclear
arsenal and the other deploying American missile defenses.
Still, in a marathon opening speech last week, Mr. Xi showed no sign of retreat and hinted at even bigger spending to vault China to world greatness: more for the military to make it a first-class fighting outfit with global reach, and more for his overseas infrastructure program, the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, which he sees as a way to win friends around the world.
Deng
Xiaoping, the architect of China’s economic reforms that started in the
late 1970s, set a policy of keeping a low profile in international
affairs and biding time. But more than his predecessors, Mr. Xi is
abandoning that approach — and encountering pushback.
In
Germany, a sharp increase in Chinese investment has prompted complaints
that China is closing its markets even as it goes on a buying spree
abroad, especially of valuable technology companies. Policy makers are
considering options for retaliating.
There are also concerns that China is trying to divide the European Union by cultivating poorer countries like Hungary and Greece and using them to block policies supported by richer countries that hurt Beijing.
Rising
powers always face resistance. But in China’s case, that pushback comes
not just from the West but also from neighbors who remember the
tributary system of its imperial past — or are wary of its Communist
political system despite its embrace of capitalism decades ago.
Mr.
Xi has made inroads in Southeast Asia, gaining influence in Myanmar,
Malaysia and Thailand. But improving ties with Myanmar’s civilian
leader, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, have been offset by the deep popular
mistrust of China in that country.
In
Malaysia, Beijing’s investments in infrastructure have been met with
accusations that the nation is selling off its sovereignty. And in
Thailand, a rail project important to a new trade route from southern
China has been delayed by haggling over costs.
In
Vietnam, China’s efforts to take advantage of Mr. Trump’s neglect have
fallen short, said Prof. Alexander L. Vuving of the Daniel K. Inouye
Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu. “Xi’s pressure in
the midst of a weakening U.S. commitment has forced some concessions but
it has also deepened Hanoi’s mistrust of Beijing,” Professor Vuving
said.
Even
in the Philippines, where the strongman president Rodrigo Duterte has
cozied up to Beijing and distanced himself from the United States, Mr.
Xi has not enjoyed a complete victory. American drones and spy planes
have been more decisive in Mr. Duterte’s battle against Islamic
militants than the rifles donated by China.
“The
quantities of arms sent are not significant compared to the amount
needed by the armed forces and the police,” said Roilo Golez, a former
congressman. “Five thousand rifles are very minimal and token.”
Mr. Xi has sometimes succeeded in positioning China as a responsible power by stepping up when Washington has stepped back — speaking up for globalization at Davos, or in favor of the Paris climate change accord.
“People
are paying far more attention to China’s influence operations than I
have seen before,” said Dan Blumenthal, director of Asian studies at the
American Enterprise Institute.
But
Beijing has also struggled to sway global opinion without resorting to
heavy-handed methods or threats that can be counterproductive.
In
Australia, which China has sought to use as a kind of pilot zone to
test methods that could be adopted in the United States and Europe, Mr.
Xi has already encountered a backlash.
China
has encouraged Chinese businessmen to give to political campaigns,
recruited Chinese students to press its policies in classrooms and
mobilized local Chinese-language news media.
In
a thinly disguised warning this month, Australia’s intelligence chief,
Duncan Lewis, described such activities as “a threat to our sovereignty,
the integrity of our national institutions and the exercise of our
citizens’ rights.”
Analysts
say Australia has been a tempting target because China is its biggest
trading partner, and it is home to large populations of Chinese
immigrants and students, who provide critical financial support to its
universities.
But
the government is now considering new limits on campaign contributions,
restrictions on foreign investments and tougher counterintelligence
laws. Australia is also seeking to strengthen security ties with India
and Japan.
“The
Chinese party-state has overplayed its hand in trying to influence
Australia’s choices,” said Rory Medcalf, head of the national security
college at the Australian National University.
Concern
about political interference by China is also growing in New Zealand,
where a Chinese official recently advised Chinese-language journalists
to coordinate coverage with China’s official press.
“I
never imagined the level of instruction was that direct,” said
Anne-Marie Brady, a professor of Chinese politics at the University of
Canterbury in Christchurch, who recently published a research paper on Beijing’s efforts in New Zealand.
Mr.
Shi, the international relations professor, said President Trump’s
“negative attitude toward liberal world trade and climate change” had
emboldened Mr. Xi to take a more active role on the global stage.
But
he added that China’s efforts to influence opinion and policy in other
countries were a natural extension of its growing stature in the world,
and not just a result of Mr. Xi’s leadership. He said China has greater
“financial and human resources” available now — and greater ambitions.
