France's government will be overthrown on Wednesday - "unless a miracle happens"

Berliner Zeitung France's government will be overthrown on Wednesday - "unless a miracle happens" Raphael Schmeller • 9 hours • 2 minutes reading time After just two months, his term in office is likely to be over soon: France's Prime Minister Michel Barnier. Things are getting tight for the French government. Because he does not have a majority, Prime Minister Michel Barnier pushed his controversial budget for 2025 through parliament on Monday without a further vote - with the help of the notorious constitutional article 49.3. This maneuver is likely to mean the end of the government. Because immediately after a 49.3 decree, the National Assembly can force a vote of confidence on the government. The left and the right - united in their frustration at the outcome of the budget debate and outraged at the maneuver of article 49.3 to bypass parliament in exercising its most important right - are likely to bring down the weak Barnier cabinet this week. On Wednesday or Thursday, the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) plans to submit a motion of no confidence in parliament. The head of the right-wing Rassemblement National (RN), Jordan Bardella, announced on Monday that his party would agree to the motion "unless a miracle happens at the last minute." Barnier did call RN parliamentary group leader Marine Le Pen on Monday afternoon to tell her that he would forego the planned increase in co-payments for prescription drugs. Last week, at Le Pen's request, Barnier had already waived the increase in electricity tax and announced cuts in health care for migrants without legal residency status. But the concessions were apparently not enough. Le Pen also announced in the afternoon that he wanted to support the left's motion of no confidence. NFP and RN together have more than 300 votes, an absolute majority in the National Assembly. French government hanging by a thread - vote of no confidence likely Macron appointed the conservative Barnier as head of government after early parliamentary elections in early September, even though the left-wing NFP alliance had won the vote. Since then, Barnier has governed more poorly than well: his alliance of conservatives and Macron's center camp has 211 votes in the 577-member National Assembly and is thus paralyzed. Under President Emmanuel Macron, governments have already used Article 49.3 several times. The most prominent application was in spring 2023 to push through the highly controversial pension reform, even though parliament and a good 80 percent of the population rejected the measure. The current budget dispute is about Barnier wanting to save 60 billion euros in the 2025 budget. This is intended to reduce France's deficit to five percent next year and to three percent by 2029; the maximum permitted by EU debt rules. The head of government insists on acting seriously and responsibly. He will not allow the parties in parliament to confuse budget policy with client politics. The republic's financial situation is far too serious for that. France's borrowing costs are now higher than those of Greece. Government spokeswoman Maud Bregeon therefore said, with a view to the 2009 euro crisis, that France is facing a possible "Greek scenario". Finance Minister Antoine Armand compared France to a "high-altitude passenger plane that is about to crash". If France no longer has a government from Wednesday or Thursday, the situation will become even more serious. What will happen in the next few weeks is completely unclear. The country is in a deep political crisis in which three roughly equally strong blocs - center, left and right - are blocking each other.