Tuesday, December 3, 2024
France is threatened by a crisis: Le Pen wants to topple the government and Macron
FR
France is threatened by a crisis: Le Pen wants to topple the government and Macron
Nail Akkoyun • 1 hour • 3 minutes reading time
Populists' calculations
A motion of no confidence threatens to topple France's government. Marine Le Pen is playing a crucial role in this - and is pushing for Emmanuel Macron to resign.
Paris - France could no longer have a fully functioning government as early as Wednesday. Unless there is a surprise turnaround, both right-wing and left-wing populists are likely to jointly support a motion of no confidence and thus bring down the government under Prime Minister Michel Barnier, which is only three months old. The right-wing populist party Rassemblement National (RN), which has long tried to build up an image as an established political force and now wants to oust Emmanuel Macron, is playing a crucial role in this.
Le Pen has recently been driving the French government forward
Observers are asking themselves: Why has RN parliamentary group leader Marine Le Pen changed her tactics so radically? Why doesn't she use her favorable position to extract more and more concessions from the government? But the RN has already been quite successful in this respect. Since his appointment, Barnier has steadily moved closer to the right-wing populists. The left-wing opposition often criticised the government for being nothing more than a "puppet" of the far-right party.
In recent days, Barnier has met almost all of the RN's demands, abandoning one austerity programme after another: OK, no increase in electricity tax. Fine, less money for medical care for migrants. If necessary, no higher co-payments for medication either. However, Le Pen kept drawing new "red lines". In theory, she could have continued to do so, because the government in France was supposed to pass three more budget laws by the end of the year.
If the RN now participates in the overthrow of the government and Macron together with its left-wing populist arch-rivals, this could anger many voters that the party has won from the conservative camp in recent years. But perhaps Le Pen is already looking beyond the fall of Barnier. "Le Pen has a personal agenda," the French news agency AFP quoted a source close to the prime minister as saying on Tuesday.
Le Pen is already eyeing the next French election - but her trial could change everything
Le Pen's agenda is determined primarily by two dates: in 2027 she plans to run for the fourth time in the presidential election, which according to some polls she could win. And in March a verdict is due in the embezzlement trial that could prevent exactly that. If the judges follow the prosecution's advice, they could immediately ban Le Pen from running in the next French election.
There are also many signs that Le Pen's real target is not the current government, but President Emmanuel Macron. In such a crisis, the president would only have three ways out, Le Pen said on Monday. He could dissolve parliament - but that would not be possible until next summer at the earliest. He could reshuffle the government - but the next one would not have a majority either. "It remains his own resignation," said Le Pen, nodding "meaningfully with raised eyebrows," as French media emphasize.
The leader of the Rassemblement National parliamentary group, Marine Le Pen, speaks during the parliamentary seminar of the far-right French party Rassemblement National
Fall of France's government: "Then of course the question of the president's resignation arises"
But the left-wing populists are also calling for Macron's resignation. "If Barnier's government falls, then of course the question of the president's resignation arises," emphasized Manuel Bompard, party coordinator of the left-wing populists. He called on Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau to prepare France for a possible early presidential election. And some backbenchers in the government camp are already thinking aloud about this possibility.
The person most affected by this is currently on a three-day state visit to Saudi Arabia, including a state banquet with the crown prince. Macron is not expected back until Wednesday - and could then find a government that is only in office in a caretaker capacity.
The chance to make a name for himself in France: Macron will not step down without a fight
It is unlikely, however, that President Macron will give in quickly. Perhaps he is even happy to get rid of his unpopular prime minister and to be back in the center of things himself, AFP speculates. There are also already rumors that Macron could appoint Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu, a close ally, as the next prime minister.