Brexit: Is Theresa May's luck about to run out?
Story highlights
- British PM heads to Brussels Monday to meet European leaders Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk
- EU heads of government gave UK a December 4 deadline to resolve three key sticking points
London (CNN)It's
been a turbulent couple of months for Britain's beleaguered Prime
Minister Theresa May, whose political survival has been an unrelenting
source of speculation.
With
June's snap election failing spectacularly to deliver May's stated
desire for a stronger governing mandate, she has increasingly steered
away from her intransigent approach to Brexit to a more pragmatic
campaign of negotiations.
With political fires to extinguish on a near daily basis -- in the form of an unruly Cabinet, a shaky alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland and, more recently, her de facto deputy accused of viewing porn on his parliamentary computer -- pressure is intensifying on the Conservative party leader.
But it will be talks in this week that could have far-reaching implications, not just for May, but the nation as well.
Deadline looms
On Monday, the British Prime Minister will head to Brussels to meet with European leaders Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk.
Negotiations between the European Union and the UK thus far have been frustratingly slow.
May will be hoping the EU heads of government determine "sufficient
progress" has been made and give the green light for future trade talks
at a critical EU summit on December 14.
Ten
days ago, the British PM was given a deadline of December 4 to put
forward further proposals over three key sticking points: the Northern Ireland border, Britain's financial settlement and the rights of EU citizens.
The
so-called "divorce bill" -- the money May's government must pay into
the EU budget as part of its current membership obligations -- has
reportedly been resolved. But if the two sides can't come to an
agreement on what kind of border will run between (British) Northern
Ireland and the (EU) Republic of Ireland, the mid-December summit might
not produce a breakthrough.
Britain
has said it will leave both the single market and customs union when it
leaves the bloc in March 2019 -- a move that critics say could lead to a
so-called "hard border" in Ireland.
Tusk: Ireland has final say
Tusk,
the European Council President, was adamant Friday that the Ireland
issue must be resolved before any post-Brexit trade discussions can move
forward.
"If the UK offer is
unacceptable for Ireland, it will also be unacceptable for the EU," Tusk
told reporters in Dublin. "This is why the key to the UK's future lies
-- in some ways -- in Dublin, at least as long as Brexit negotiations
continue."
Ireland has said it is
not looking to delay the Brexit process but wants written assurances in
the form of a specific and detailed border plan.
Irish
Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said Sunday he was unsure if an
agreement dodging a hard Northern Ireland border could be managed by
Monday's deadline, but he hoped that May's meetings in Brussels might
lead to a rapprochement.
"Let's not run before we can walk here. Obviously, we would like that to be the case," Coveney told RTE radio, according to Reuters.
"The
hope is that those (Monday) meetings will result in a momentum that can
be carried into the leaders' summit the week after ... and can allow
this Brexit negotiation process to open up to phase two of
discussions."
And May also faces
potential obstacles from Northern Ireland's Democratic Party, whose 10
Westminster lawmakers are propping up her minority government and who
will oppose any special treatment for Northern Ireland.
New Brexiteer demands
Meanwhile
back at home, top Brexit supporters have demanded that May stand her
ground on "any further financial commitment to the EU until they have
agreed that in return, they will meet a number of conditions."
Preempting the mid-December summit, the Leave Means Leave group sent a letter
outlining several terms, including calling for Britain to be beyond the
jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice (ECJ) and for no new EU
regulations to apply once Britain exits in March 2019.
Former
Conservative Party leader Iain Duncan Smith wrote in The Sunday
Telegraph that the Brexit divorce bill should only be paid once the ECJ
has relinquished control.
"It
must be contingent on an end to the authority of the European Court of
Justice. Most people who take an interest in the EU recognize that the
single most important definition of taking back control is the moment we
leave the authority of the ECJ," Duncan smith wrote.
"Yet
even as we get ready to leave, the EU has insisted that the ECJ retains
the right to rule on the rights of EU citizens in the UK after Brexit
... To do this, they demanded the jurisdiction of the ECJ should be
maintained. This is the most preposterous claim."
While
May has promised to end the ECJ's authority in the UK, she has alluded
that its remit might continue in some capacity during an "implementation
period" past March 2019.
This will not placate the Leave Means Leave camp, and could cause problems at home for the embattled PM.
The
coming week brings the negotiations to date to a climax, with
disagreements potentially halting the entire process. The EU must deem
there to be "sufficient progress" in all three areas of contention for
Brexit talks to move onto the next phase in December.
How
May handles the meetings on Monday and the upcoming summit will be
crucial both in retaining her position as prime minister as well as
indicating what a post-Brexit Britain may look like.
